A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
